2026 NFL Mock Draft: All 32 First-Round Picks With AI Probability Scores

Mendoza is the most clear-cut number one overall pick this decade. After transferring from Cal to Indiana, he led the Hoosiers to an undefeated 16-0 season and a national championship, winning the Heisman Trophy with 3,535 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions. His 79.2% adjusted completion percentage ranked second in the country. Multiple analysts describe him as a prototypical pocket passer in the Burrow and Matt Ryan mold. The Raiders have the most acute need at quarterback in the league and hold the first pick. This is as close to a lock as the draft produces.

Why 94% and not 100%: The only scenario where Mendoza does not go first overall is an overwhelming trade offer from a desperate team — think three first-round picks plus an impact player. Historical precedent puts that at roughly 6%. Las Vegas has been in quarterback purgatory for years. Mendoza is the answer.

Reese is one of the most intriguing pass rush prospects in years. He transitioned from linebacker to edge rusher at Ohio State and logged 10 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles in his first full season at the position. His 4.46 40-yard dash at the combine is elite for a 243-pound edge defender. At just 20 years old, his ceiling is generational. The Jets hold two first-round picks and have a clear need for a true alpha pass rusher. Reese addresses that void immediately.

Why 71%: The Jets are a potential trade-down candidate at 2. Multiple evaluators have debated Reese versus David Bailey for the first EDGE taken, and some teams would pay a premium to jump to this spot. There is also a non-trivial scenario where the Jets use this pick on a quarterback if they are not sold on the current roster.

Bailey was arguably the most productive pass rusher in college football in 2025, posting 14.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss after transferring from Stanford to Texas Tech. He is 22 years old with three years of starting experience, bringing the immediate impact and proven production that front offices trust at the top of the first round. Some evaluators rate Bailey above Reese for his floor and readiness. Arizona has significant defensive line needs and Bailey would be a Day 1 starter at a premium position.

Why 65%: Francis Mauigoa, the top offensive tackle in the class, is also a strong fit here if Arizona prioritizes protecting their franchise quarterback investment. The Cardinals hold three first-round picks this year, which complicates the calculus at each slot.

Love led all of college football with 35 rushing touchdowns and 40 touchdowns from scrimmage over the 2024 and 2025 seasons combined. He won the 2025 Doak Walker Award and finished third in Heisman voting. His 4.36 breakaway speed and ability to force 60 missed tackles in 2025 alone put him in rare company. One scout compared his profile to Reggie Bush. The Titans are in full rebuild mode after a brutal 2025 season and need a marquee offensive weapon to build their identity around.

Why 52%: Toss-up because offensive tackle is an equally pressing need. Francis Mauigoa and other top OT prospects could tempt Tennessee if they believe protecting the quarterback is the higher priority. There is also a trade-down scenario where Tennessee accumulates picks for a more comprehensive rebuild.

Mauigoa is the consensus OT1 in this class. He earned First-Team AP All-American honors in 2025 and allowed just two sacks on 533 pass-blocking snaps, including zero over the final 12 games. Scouts project him primarily as a guard at the NFL level due to his broad build, but his movement skills and power suggest he can dominate at either interior position. The Giants acquired the No. 10 pick from Cincinnati in exchange for Dexter Lawrence, and this projection has them using their own top-five slot on the franchise offensive lineman they have lacked for years.

Why 68%: Jeremiyah Love is also in play here if the Giants believe their offensive line situation is addressable elsewhere. The position need is genuine at both spots. Multiple mock drafts have Love going to New York at this pick.

Tate is the consensus WR1 or 1A in this class depending on the evaluator. He finished 2025 with 51 receptions for 875 yards and 9 touchdowns at Ohio State, averaging a stunning 17.2 yards per catch while posting a 90th-percentile separation rate across the Power Four. He is described as the most pro-ready wide receiver in recent drafts. New England needs weapons for Drake Maye, and Tate would provide an immediate WR1 impact from Day 1.

Why 64%: Offensive line protection for Maye is an equally valid priority. If an elite OT slips to six, the Patriots could pivot. Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State) is also in the WR conversation at this slot and introduces pick-level competition that drives the score down from lock territory.

Styles earned 2nd-Team AP All-American honors in 2025 after leading Ohio State with 82 tackles and serving as a team captain. His athleticism is exceptional and his coverage ability is the best of any linebacker in this class. Daniel Jeremiah had him cracking the top five in his final big board. Carolina has defensive needs across multiple positions and Styles provides the rare combination of run defense, pass rush, and coverage ability that modern defenses demand.

Why 49%: Offensive tackle is a legitimate alternative at 7 given the Panthers' commitment to protecting their quarterback investment. The pick is genuinely unclear, which is why this sits in toss-up territory. Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State) is also in play if Carolina wants to build the secondary.

Downs won back-to-back Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year awards at Ohio State after transferring from Alabama, where he won the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year Award in 2023. He won the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation's top defensive back in 2025 and was First-Team AP All-American in both 2024 and 2025. Bleacher Report's final big board has him as the overall number one player in the class. The Jets holding two first-round picks gives them flexibility to address both sides of the ball.

Why 46%: With two picks in the first round, the Jets could take a quarterback at 8 if they passed at 2. A wide receiver or additional offensive lineman are also viable. The toss-up reflects genuine organizational uncertainty about direction.

Delane transferred from Virginia Tech to LSU in 2025 and immediately earned First-Team AP All-American and First-Team All-SEC honors. Pro Football Focus has him as the number one cornerback in the class and ranked 9th overall. He is described as a long, quick outside corner with excellent instincts and ball skills capable of playing both press and off coverage against top receivers. Chicago's secondary has been a liability and Delane provides an immediate upgrade at CB1.

Why 63%: Pass rush is also a significant need. If a top edge rusher has slipped to this point on the board, the Bears could pivot. Delane's probability is boosted by the fact that the EDGE position has been largely addressed in the top eight picks.

Tyson is the most polarizing prospect in the 2026 wide receiver class. He is the consensus WR1 on some of the most respected big boards and a legitimate top-ten talent when healthy, but his injury history means his draft position could fluctuate significantly. His tape showcases elite separation, contested-catch ability, and route precision at every level of the field. If the Giants already used their own pick on an offensive lineman, this second first-rounder is the perfect slot to add a dynamic receiving threat.

Why 51%: Tyson's injury history introduces real uncertainty about how teams will value him on draft day. CJ Allen (LB, Georgia) and Anthony Hill Jr. (LB, Texas) are both viable picks here if the Giants decide to add elite linebacker talent with this acquired pick.

Allen was First-Team AP All-American in 2025 after leading Georgia with 88 tackles and eight tackles for loss. He was a Butkus Award finalist and is a productive, intelligent playmaker who anchors the middle. San Francisco's linebacker corps has been thinned by injuries and attrition. Allen is the kind of instinctive, coverage-capable middle linebacker that the 49ers' scheme demands, and he would be a plug-and-play starter from Day 1.

Why 53%: Offensive line is also a genuine need. If an elite interior lineman is available, the 49ers could prioritize protecting their quarterback investment instead. Kenyon Sadiq (TE, Oregon) is also in play here if San Francisco wants to add a weapons for the passing game.

Hill is a fluid, instinctive linebacker with outstanding size and closing speed. His change-of-direction ability and coverage range make him a versatile piece in any scheme. Dallas has multiple needs and Hill addresses the linebacker position that has been a weakness for several seasons. His production at Texas against Big 12 competition translates well to the NFL read-and-react demands at the position.

Why 47%: Dallas has so many holes that this pick genuinely could go in multiple directions. Wide receiver, cornerback, and edge rusher are all legitimate alternatives depending on which top players remain available. The Cowboys' organizational direction under Jerry Jones adds additional uncertainty.

Sadiq is the ideal modern tight end in terms of athleticism and versatility. He can impact both the receiving and blocking phases, allowing offensive coordinators to align him all over the formation. He earned 2nd-Team AP All-American honors and Big Ten Tight End of the Year in 2025 after recording 51 receptions for 560 yards and 8 touchdowns. His upside is first-round caliber and Miami's offense has been searching for a reliable tight end weapon to complement their speed at receiver.

Why 61%: Offensive line protection is equally pressing. If a top interior lineman is available at 13, Miami could pivot to protecting their quarterback. The confidence is moderate because the team need and positional value both justify this selection at this slot.

Simpson is the consensus QB2 in the class behind Mendoza, though there is significant distance between the two. After Mendoza, the quarterback tier drops, and Simpson is the next name most evaluators agree on. Seattle's quarterback situation is a genuine concern heading into 2026. If the Seahawks decide this is the year to find their long-term answer at the position, Simpson at 14 represents the best available option at a realistic landing spot in the mid-first round.

Why 36%: Seattle's direction is the hardest to project of any team in the first round. Cornerback is an equally pressing need. The wildcard rating reflects genuine unpredictability about whether the Seahawks are in quarterback-hunting mode or still building around the current roster.

Price is the clear RB2 in this class behind Love. His production and athleticism profile make him a legitimate first-round talent with the vision, burst, and pass-catching ability to contribute immediately in an NFL offense. Pittsburgh's offensive infrastructure needs a reliable backfield presence, and Price provides that at a position of genuine need. If the Steelers cannot execute a trade-up for a quarterback, adding an elite offensive weapon at 15 gives whoever lines up under center a legitimate weapon.

Why 44%: Pittsburgh's draft strategy depends heavily on their quarterback decision. If they trade up for a signal-caller, this pick does not exist in this form. Wide receiver is equally viable here if a top receiver has slipped.